I’ve spoken with a lot of people lately about a lot of topics. People have all sorts of opinions these days, and I just want to ask the question: What if you’re wrong?
About what, you may ask? About anything, would be my reply.
Dominion Voting Systems vs Rudy Giuliani
It really started for me a few weeks ago when I read the lawsuit filed against Rudy Giuliani by Dominion Voting Systems, the company that makes voting systems used in at least 24 states in 2020. (The company’s website shows that they have clients in 28 states.)
The $1.3 billion lawsuit basically says that Dominion did nothing wrong. Rudy and many others have been saying that Dominion’s voting systems rigged the election.
Now, I don’t know which side you’re on, but if you believe Rudy, my question is: What if you (and he) are wrong? What if Dominion is right and its systems did nothing to alter the election’s outcome in 2020?
In that case, haven’t we irrevocably harmed an American company for no real reason? If any of us owned that company or invested in that company, and were now losing a lot of money as a result of false claims being made about the company, wouldn’t we be screaming foul, at the very least?
And do we really know for sure one way or the other? No, we don’t. None of us. Not really. Not personally. It seems to me that people today are more sure about things than they should be.
How Each Side Formed Their Opinion
Look, I happen to believe that Dominion is not guilty of the charges being leveled by Giuliani. But, that’s only because I happen to believe the people that are telling me that, not because I have any personal knowledge.
If you don’t believe those same people, then chances are you believe otherwise. But, that’s only because you happen to believe the people telling you that’s the case, not because you have any personal knowledge either.
In other words, you could be wrong, right?
Will Trump Have Legal Issues?
On the left, there are similar examples. The left leaning media have written numerous articles and televised segments that lead people to believe that Donald Trump, once out of office, is sure to be facing all sorts of legal problems.
Will he though? The answer is that one really knows for sure.
But, talk to someone on the left and they’ll often make it sound like a sure thing. Why? Because they believe the people that are telling them that it’s a sure thing.
Just listen to former Solicitor General, Neal Katyal, pontificating on MSNBC about whether Trump will end up punished by the courts. He’s absolutely certain of it.
The simple fact is, however, that he just doesn’t know that. No one does. When it comes to federal charges being filed, nothing is assured. And it’s not like the U.S. Attorneys at the Southern District of New York have a stellar record at prosecuting complex white collar crime cases.
Still, a lot of people think that Trump’s legal jeopardy is a fate accompli. And should that prove to be wrong, I’m betting that we’ll have a lot of people who think something went wrong… not that they were wrong, but something else was.
The truth may be that their expectations came from them being misled, but I don’t think many will think that.
Accepting Our Opinions May Be Wrong
We’ve become a nation of people who think that whatever they think is objectively and incontrovertibly correct. As if, there’s no way they’re wrong.
Look at the opinions about the Covid vaccines. I have friends that won’t even consider getting them. Why? Because they’ve become convinced that getting the vaccine is worse than getting the disease.
They’re sure that what they think is correct because people they trust have told them so. Do they really know? No. They’re not epidemiologists, not vaccine experts in any sense of the word. They’re listening to people they believe are experts.
So, I asked a friend who says he won’t get the vaccine:
What if you’re wrong? What if, as a result of not getting vaccinated, you end up getting bad Covid, end up in the hospital, maybe end up dead? Or, what if you end up getting it and giving it to someone who becomes seriously ill or worst case, dies?
Or, what if we never reach herd immunity because people are afraid to get the vaccine and as a result, the virus mutates and we end up fighting the pandemic for years?
In other words, what if you’re wrong? How will that feel if that’s what happens as a result? What if the vaccine was the right thing to do?
I don’t know for sure one way or the other. I’m getting vaccinated as soon as I can because I choose to believe the people telling me that I should. I’m not a medical expert or scientist either.
I know that Dr. Fauci and his peers have been wrong at times. In the beginning, I think he told us not to wear masks, for example.
But, just because airline pilots occasionally make mistakes and crash planes is not a reason not to listen to a pilot next time you’re flying. It’s no reason to let me fly the plane next time, for example.
Why are we so sure of our opinions these days?
Let’s talk about whatever is happening at our southern border because I’m no longer at all sure what is going on at the border, let alone what we should be doing to fix whatever it is. Do we need a wall? Do we have a wall? What would make things better? I don’t know.
But, again, I’ve got friends on both sides of the political divide that seem sure of whatever they think. None of them are immigration experts. None of them have been to the border to see what’s happening for themselves.
They believe what people they trust are telling them. On both sides.
How do they know they’re right about whatever they think? Answer: They don’t.
What is our immigration policy in this country? How long does it take to come here? What’s involved in the process? Does it matter from which country someone is coming? What if someone came here illegally 20 years ago? What should they do now?
Among my friends and colleagues, I can’t find anyone that really knows the answers to any of those questions.
Should we raise the federal minimum wage to $15? I majored in economics and I have no idea. It sounds okay on the surface, but the CBO says it will cost millions of jobs. Others say it won’t. Maybe it should be different in different states? I’m really not sure.
But, a lot of people seem pretty darn sure of one way or the other. Do they really know the right answer? No. They just think one way or the other because people they trust people who tell them they should think one way or the other.
One evening I was talking with a close friend and he asked me if I was in favor of the death penalty. I said that I was. He then made a case that we shouldn’t have the death penalty and 15 minutes later, I had changed my opinion.
A week later, I changed it back and since then I’ve flip-flopped so many times that I no longer know for sure what I think about the subject.
Information vs. Knowledge
I think perhaps at least part of the reason behind our new found certainty may be because we’re confusing information with knowledge.
Information is what we’re bombarded with courtesy of the Internet. Knowledge is what comes from the in-depth study of information and then adding real life experience.
That’s why people “practice” medicine or law. They study and learn the information and then they spend years putting that information into practice. After years of doing that, they develop actual knowledge.
Of course, we’re all entitled to our own opinions, there should be no question about that. But, we should also all remember that our opinions might be wrong.
When we reach a point where we’re 100% certain of something that in reality we know very little about, that’s when I think we get kind of crazy.
Yesterday, I was talking with a friend of mine who lives in Arizona. He believes that in 2020, Trump won in Maricopa County, even though the Maricopa County Recorders Office shows that Biden won by 45,109 votes. (Biden: 1,040,774. Trump: 995,665.)
He wants an audit, which I think is fine. But, he said something yesterday that caused me to pause. “There’s absolutely no chance that Trump lost Maricopa County, none,” he said.
I had to stop him. Well, that’s absolutely not true, I told him. Of course, there’s a “chance” that Biden won Maricopa County. Even if you don’t believe he won, how could there not be at least “a chance” that the results are correct.
I mean, the results show Trump losing Maricopa by a margin of just over one percent. (1.16%, to be specific.) With that sort of margin, how could anyone say there’s no chance?
He bases his beliefs about the election on what he saw leading up to Election Day. He saw tens of thousands showing up for Trump’s rallies and waving flags on street corners, compared with what appeared to be relatively meager public display of support for Biden.
I understand how that can look and make one feel, but I pointed out to him that one reason could be that Biden’s supporters were more concerned about Covid than were Trump’s supporters, so they didn’t turn out in public gatherings. There are other factors in play, in other words.
After a few minutes he conceded, agreeing that there is a chance that he’s wrong and Biden’s win was legitimate. I wasn’t trying to say that he was wrong, just that he should allow for that possibility.
Be Open to Having Your Opinion Changed
It’s not crazy to think or believe something. Our thoughts, beliefs and opinions are important. But, when we start thinking that opinions we hold cannot be wrong, we’re no longer thinking clearly.
We’ve all had opinions that turned out to be wrong. Remaining open to that possibility is what makes us smart. It’s also what allows us to keep getting smarter.
Throughout our lives, we learn new things and gain experience over time. That’s called growth and being able to grow and change is not something we should avoid… it’s something of which we should be proud.
That much I do know… for sure.
Mandelman out.
